To most, peace of mind trumps all. Texas Governor, John Connally, surviving an assassin’s bullet in U.S. President John F. Kennedy’s car in Dallas, later declared bankruptcy after real estate losses. Yet he was humbly thankful for what life had given him; his time in office for public service. What had he lost – but a few million dollars and a bit of land! John Connally was philosophical about his life.

For others, this may be the last thing they achieve; big ambitions, little insecurities, a world within their grasp but somehow always just beyond their reach.

Intimations of what could follow may crystallize from unexpected insights. A squirrel putting away nuts in a tree hollow reminds the spender to save. Two male hawks competing for a mate brings suggestions to a woman that her husband is cheating on her.

And so on.

In response to which, to suspected uncertainties, people then take precautions – individually, collectively… A parent will protect the innocence of a small child – theirs or another. Political leaders “act in concert” to create institutions that enforce peace against threats and realities of autocratic leaders in unpredictable jurisdictions.

But still, uncertainties persist. And not necessarily as realities. Rather, they can be concerns. Like seeing the shadow of a mass, smelling the scent or fragrance of something unseen. But still present.

An amber light triggered within… turns to red when “the shadow” or “the smell” persists – but fails to materialize. One’s instincts take over…

Chaos theory has captured public interest in recent years… along with controlling risk (of whatever nature), predicting history (or at least, determining alternative outcomes). Investors use randomized “Monte Carlo scenarios” first developed for the Manhattan Project. “Country Risk analysis” is also a “specialty” which has evolved specially since third world sovereign debt defaults in the late 1970s. Yes, a corporate client can purchase detailed future analyses giving peace of mind about political stability in countries where investing or creditor company has billions at risk! But The Economist’s The World in 2011 suggests nothing of the popular uprisings sweeping the Arab world.

Peace of mind vs uncertainty is the basic substructure of the seemingly disparate and unrelated essay in Evviad.